Is The Price Of Caprolactam Falling Far Behind?

First, from the price trend, the spot price of caprolactam in early October is 12700-12800 element / Tons accepted, Sinopec's first price of caprolactam in October. Thirteen thousand element / Tons. During the National Day holiday, downstream demand decreased, caprolactam entered a situation of supply exceeding demand, and prices fell all the way.

chart One Spot price chart of Caprolactam

Source: lung Chung

By Eleven month Eighteen The price of caprolactam fell to East China market in October. Ten thousand and six hundred element / Near tonnes, Ten Prices fell at the beginning of the month. Two thousand and one hundred element / Tons, or up to 16.47% 。 In terms of contracts, Sinopec Eleven Monthly listing price Eleven thousand and four hundred element / The expected clearing price may be in the market. 11000-11200 element / Tons interval. Spot and contract prices have fallen below this year. Six Month low point Two thousand and sixteen Year old bottom impact.

chart 22013-2019 Comparison of annual pure benzene and caprolactam trend

Source: lung Chung

Contrast 2013-2019 Price of pure benzene and caprolactam, the lowest price of caprolactam is Two thousand and sixteen Beginning of the year Nine thousand and three hundred element / The lowest price difference between T and B is found. Four thousand and four hundred element / Tons. At present, benzo spreads. Five thousand and three hundred element / Tons still have room for comparison with historical price differentials. But on average Six thousand element / The cost of processing caprolactam has been reduced recently, and the price reduction rate has slowed down slightly. But the price has not stabilized yet, and the spot price of 10000 yuan / ton is in danger.

From the basic aspect of supply and demand, Ten Since the month, caprolactam has been oversupplied, and terminal demand is in a doldrums. The demand for high-speed spinning and slicing is ahead of the off-season. The high speed spinning and slicing stock in the polymerization plant remains high, resulting in the sluggish flow of chips and caprolactam. Although caprolactam profits are reversed, the volume of trading is limited, and the contradiction between supply and demand has not been solved in real terms. Early factory is still profitable, and its initiative is relatively high. Caprolactam has also been losing money, and manufacturers are reducing production and decreasing their production. The actual factory start-up situation is as follows:

surface One Caprolactam factory starts statistics

Source: lung Chung

With the increase of the caprolactam factory, the overall load fell. Seven Below, however, because the factory's overhaul plan is mostly short term parking, plus Jiangsu sea power. Twenty The possibility of restarting at 10000 tons is likely to be larger at the end of the month, so the market is still pessimistic about the supply side's expectations.

Demand side, the downstream high-speed spinning slicing library is difficult, spinning and terminal although raw material inventory is not high, but finished product inventory is still backlog, so demand side short term and no substantial improvement expected. Although conventional spinning and slicing are replenishing downstream, prices continue to fall, which also hits downstream confidence. Although the bottom is bottled, the bottom is hard to find, and a large number of purchases are rarely heard. Under such circumstances, the demand side is difficult to form an effective impetus to caprolactam.

On the whole, although the caprolactam factory is in a loss, but the supply and demand can not be alleviated, the cost support is weak, and the demand side can hardly be substantially improved. Therefore, the support of caprolactam market needs to be adjusted to the supply side. Later stage Attention should be paid to the restart of Jiangsu sea power and the supply of caprolactam can be adjusted to match the supply of downstream demand. Only when the supply side actively adjusts, caprolactam will be able to stabilize the bottom.