What Is The Economic Impact Of Britain'S Attempt To Depart From Europe?

Whether it is off Europe has been seen as a hovering around the world.

Last week, a survey of black swans, the biggest black market, prompted global investors to tighten their nerves again.

According to the latest poll of 2014 adults conducted by the British Independent newspaper (TheIndependent) commissioned by ORB, 24-25 in February, 52% of the respondents supported Britain's "off Europe", while 48% supported "stay in Europe".

This was reversed with the January survey, when 48% agreed to leave the EU and 52% support the EU.

In February 28th,

Before the closure of the G20 meeting, the finance ministers issued a joint statement warning Britain that if it chose to leave the EU in June this year's referendum, it would trigger a "global economic shock".

Wrestling

Britain's attempt to "disengage Europe" has faced a strong external resistance from the very beginning, and its domestic position on the issue of "off Europe" is quite different.

In June 23rd, Britain will hold a referendum on whether to leave the EU.

Before that, the battle of Britain will become more and more intense.

In February 18th, British Prime Minister Cameron and the other 27 leaders of the European Union finally agreed on the reform proposals proposed by the United Kingdom.

On 22 February, Cameron submitted an agreement with the EU to the lower house of the British Parliament and sought the support of the members of the United Kingdom for the UK to stay in the EU.

He stressed: "breaking away from the EU is like jumping to the dark, which will be a wrong choice for the UK."

Besides, it will only lead to the illusion of regaining sovereignty, but in fact Britain will lose its rights and influence.

But so far, 6 cabinet ministers have openly cut the issue of "Cameron" on the issue of Europe, and Cameron has been severely split within the conservative party.

According to the latest Broadcasting British Corporation statistics, there are 122 members of the conservative party who openly support Britain's stay in the EU, 106 against it, and 102 others have not yet made a clear statement.

Among the opposition parties, the overwhelming majority of Labour Party members, as well as the Scotland National Party, the Welsh party and the Liberal Democratic Party support Britain's status as a member of the European Union, and the Democratic United Party and the British Independent Party are against it.

London mayor Johnson (BorisJohnson) called for "off Europe", prompting 26% of respondents to be more inclined to support "off Europe".

Influence

Finland finance minister AlexanderStubb has said that if the UK leaves the EU and fears the market's short-term turmoil, the economy and politics of the UK and the EU will be weak for a long time.

According to analysts at faxing bank, the contribution of the UK to the size of the EU's annual budget is close to the third of Germany and France, accounting for about 12.5% of the EU budget.

If Britain returns to Europe, the EU's annual budget is equivalent to pulling out a pillar.

Once Britain withdraws from the EU, it will probably bring a chain reaction to other European countries.

But the market believes that deflation pressure on the fundamentals of the UK is still the best reason for investors to accelerate their escape from the UK even if the results are clear now.

It is expected that in March, the GBP / USD will drop to near 1.35.

There are even expectations that the pound will challenge the recent 20 years low in the coming months.

KathyLien, an analyst at Broolyn's Asset Management Co (BKAssetManagement), said in a weekly report that British companies and investors were able to hedge against the drop in pound sterling through the spot and forward exchange rates, especially when the pound / dollar fell below 1.40.

The panic brought about by Britain's European independence scandal has seriously affected British enterprises and the economy. The GBP / USD will increase the downward trend, exceeding expectations.

The pound fell below 1.40 against the US dollar and the next support was 1.3656 in 2009.

Goldman Sachs predicts that the pound will fall to about 1 to 1.15 to 1.20 dollars against the dollar, and the euro will rise to 1 euros to 0.90 to 0.95 pounds against the pound.